Mabill's Blog

http://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2010/06/blog-post_24.html

各位觀眾五條煙



年紀越大，越覺得一切似曾相識。

我 是六十後的 Auntie 輩，童年有幸趕上麥理浩 (Crawford Murray MacLehose, 1917-2000) 治港的七十年代，直接受惠於他的德政。少女時代是中英就香港前途進行談判、人心浮動但是尚存希望的八十年代，然後是九十年代初的移民潮，九七前資產市場的 虛火，九七後的「建華之亂」和一地的雞毛鴨血。目擊過理想主義者殺身成仁，也見識過回歸前後某些人的變臉神功。有這樣的成長背景，就算未練成鐵石心腸，亦 早知人心險惡、世道艱難。

如今，輪到可以做我兒女的八十後和九十後見識中國政治的醜陋。短短幾日之內，當權者的陰謀詭計、不擇手段，同謀 者、被招安者的自私、恐懼、虛偽、軟弱、優柔寡斷以及功利計算，還有被出賣和犧牲者的憤怒、悲傷和錯愕，一舖過大晒冷（港式粵語：亮出底牌）。絕對是一齣 大堆頭、大製作、陣容鼎盛、巨星雲集。更難得的，是每一個角色都有戲，都有完整的故事。論戲劇性和娛樂性，直迫周星馳的「各位觀眾五條煙！」。

所 謂的峰迴路轉，不過是故技重施。偉大祖國對付民主派的手法，令我想起讀書時代翻閱過的學術論文，都是美國佬的著作，裡面刻劃的中共官員談判風格，如今活現 眼前。以下文字，節錄自 Chinese Political Negotiating Behavior, 1967-1984，作者是有份參與中美建交談判的 Richard H. Solomon。

Opening moves

… They (the Chinese) do not see it as a highly technical process of haggling over details, in which the two sides initially table maximum positions and then move to a point of convergence through incremental compromises.

To establish a framework for a relationship, PRC officials will press their counterparts at the outset of a negotiation to accept certain general "principles" (such as those embodied in the Shanghai Communiqué of 1972). Such political ground rules are then used to constrain the interlocutor's bargaining flexibility as the negotiation proceeds and to test the sincerity of his desire to develop and sustain a relationship with China. Experience shows, however, that when a PRC negotiator wants to reach an accord, he can set aside the emphasis on principles and reach a concrete agreement that may appear to have little relationship to the principles that were seemingly essential early in the negotiation.

End Game

When PRC officials believe that they have tested the limits of their negotiating counterparts' position and that a formal understanding serves their interests, they can move rapidly to conclude an agreement.

They may let a negotiation appear to deadlock to test their interlocutor's patience and firmness, then have a senior leader intervene to cut the knot of the apparent deadlock. Agreements are usually reached at the very last moment of a negotiating encounter--or even just after a deadline has passed. Once Chinese leaders have decided to reach an agreement, their negotiators can be quite flexible in working out concrete arrangements.

Implementation

At the same time, Chinese officials sometimes give the impression that agreements are never quite final. They will seek modifications of understandings when it serves their purposes; and the conclusion of an agreement is the occasion for pressing the counterpart government for new concessions. If they are unable to fully implement an agreement themselves, however, they will ask the counterpart to "understand" their difficulties on the basis of friendship, or they will make excuses that put the burden of responsibility on the other party.

全文見：http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR663/index2.html

有 「原則」，但是沒有細節。開始的時候，在「原則」問題上兜圈子，消耗對方的精力，有需要的時候卻可以隨時放棄所謂的「原則」（其實是煙幕）。腰斬、推倒、 重來，利用死線向對方施壓（以及令對方沒有時間思考），在死線前的最後一刻，由有勢力人士出面解開死結。簽約之後，利用不完整協議所預留的彈性，來操控事 情的發展方向以及謀取自己的利益。一旦無法履行協議，就把責任推到對方的身上，然後開動宣傳機器，發動輿論攻勢。凡此種種，都是偉大祖國的常用慣技，曾經 令天真的美國人嘗盡苦頭。西方人重視知識的傳遞與累積，於是寫下來，警惕後輩，立此存照。

香港人不讀書，尤其是不讀歷史和政治，於是覺得 大開眼界。如今阿爺把對付美國佬的一套，用於對付香港人，亦足以說明我們的份量　——　多得一百五十年的英國殖民地統治，香港人來自另一種文化背景，不懂 得玩祖國的那一套，到開始懂得一點皮毛的時候，又已經泥足深陷，身不由己了。

換個角度看，又未必是壞事。有些事情，早一點知道，比遲知道 好，例如：四十歲以上的人信不過，中國人的政黨靠不住。 Auntie 的上一代，要到中年甚至晚年，被野心家整得死去活來之後才明白這個道理。香港的小朋友三十歲之前就知道了，從此懂得 Take things into their own hands ，用自己的方法，走自己的路。下一個戰場，主管香港事務的祖國官員說得明白，是如何爭取八十後和九十後，令年青人為國家感到自豪。小朋友，看你們了。

照 片來源：


YouTube 精選：

周星馳：＜賭聖＞(1990) 講數篇（英文字幕）
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0s-UbB1xf8&feature=related

鄭 少秋：＜輪流轉＞（曲：顧嘉輝／詞：黃霑）
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0mtrzSYn98

延 伸閱讀：

以下幾本是研究中共官員談判風格的經典英文著作：

Chinese Political Negotiating Behavior, 1967-1984
R. H. Solomon
http://www.amazon.com/Chinese-Political-Negotiating-Behavior-1967-1984/dp/0833023373/ref=sr_1_6?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1277284525&sr=1-6

Chinese Negotiating Style: Commercial Approaches and Cultural Principles
Lucian W. Pye
http://www.amazon.com/Chinese-Negotiating-Style-Commercial-Approaches/dp/0899307248/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1277284525&sr=1-1

The Chinese at the Negotiating Table Style and Characteristics
Alfred D. Wilhelm
http://www.amazon.com/Chinese-Negotiating-Table-Style-Characteristics/dp/0894991329/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1277284525&sr=1-4

24/06/2010